The Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi with the Prime Minister of Pakistan, Mr. Nawaz Sharif, at the 18th SAARC Summit, in Nepal on November 27, 2014.

Photo Credit: PIB

The breakthrough in Indo-Pak relations in Islamabad recently is a welcome step close on the heels of the NSAs of the two countries in Bangkok. It may be recalled that Prime Minister Modi had invited all heads of SAARC nations, including PM Nawaz Sharif, for swearing in of his government last year. The Ufa talks in Russia were significant progress but then further dialogue was stymied with Pakistan continuing with terror attacks in India and the Pakistani High Commission at New Delhi rolling out the red carpet for the Kashmiri separatists. Pakistani NSA Sartaj Aziz had cancelled his visit to India after being informed that the NSA level talks would be confined to terrorism in accordance the Ufa agreement and that he would not be meeting Kashmiri separatists. Later, Sartaj Aziz had wagged his nuclear tail saying Pakistan is a nuclear armed state and knows how to defend itself. Subsequently, in a surprise move just before Nawaz Sharif's visit to the US, Lt Gen Nasser Khan Janjua replaced Sartaj Aziz as NSA — former being obvious appointee of Army Chief Raheel Sharif. If this denoted the shrinking civilian control over national security of Pakistan, it was obvious with the body language of PM Nawaz Sharif when PM Modi met him in Paris on the sidelines of the climate change conference that he was under considerable strain. Spurt of global terror too has put the spotlight on Pakistan's generation of terror, besides Nawaz heading a weak democracy held to ransom by the military.

NSA Ajit Doval had occasion to meet his Pakistani counterpart Janjua in Bangkok on December 6 and the two agreed to discuss terror. Pakistan's change of stance perhaps is also because of Raheel Sharif's recent visit to the US where he was told to clamp down on all terrorist organizations. External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj then proceeded to Islamabad to attend the 'Heart of Asia' conference, fifth in the series of ministerial level meetings that have been ongoing since 2011, in continuation of the 'Istanbul Process' that brings together senior representatives of a number of countries of the region in discussions aimed at enhancing security around Afghanistan and promoting economic development in that country. Mrs Sushma Swaraj called on Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and held discussions with Sartaj Aziz, Adviser to the Pakistani PM on Foreign Affairs.

A Joint Indo-Pakistan statement was subsequently issued, highlights of which are:

1. Both countries condemned terrorism and resolved to cooperate in eliminating it;
2. Post meeting in Bangkok, the two NSAs to address all issues connected to terrorism;
3. Pakistan assured India of expediting early conclusion of the 26/11 Mumbai terror attack trial, and;
4. Agreement to a Comprehensive Bilateral Dialogue, directing the Foreign Secretaries to work out the modalities and schedule of the meetings under the Dialogue including Peace and Security, CBMs, J&K, Siachen, Sir Creek, Wullar Barrage/Tulbul Navigation Project, Economic and Commercial Cooperation, Counter-Terrorism, Narcotics Control, Humanitarian Issues, People to People exchanges and religious tourism.

India's earlier focus for the bilateral talks to be centred on terrorism was in accordance with the Ufa agreement while Pakistan wanted dialogue on all issues including Kashmir. The Indian refusal was because Pakistan was showing no inclination to bring to book the propagators of the 26/11 Mumbai terrorist attacks, and in fact was denying any Pakistani involvement under pretext of 'non-state actors' despite adequate evidence to the contrary. Significantly, Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi, one of the main perpetrators, continues to be treated as royalty by the Pakistani administration by accounts in Pakistan's own media. That Pakistan continues to protect Dawood Ibrahim wanted by India is another issue. Then, Mullah Asim Umar, the head of AQIS is also a Pakistani national and obviously sheltered in Pakistan. However, now that Pakistan has assured expediting early conclusion of the 26/11 Mumbai terror attack trial, Prime Minister Modi has taken the initiative to resume the bilateral dialogue. It is also because the West is somewhat abandoning Afghanistan at a critical stage without letting it stabilize politically, economically and militarily and increase instability would affect the region too adversely.

That is why EAM Sushma Swaraj extended India's hand of friendship to Pakistan during the 'Heart of Asia' conference, saying, "It is time that we display the maturity and self confidence to do business with each other and strengthen regional trade and cooperation... .. let us at least resolve to help Afghanistan in the best traditions of good neighbourliness through most effective transit arrangements. India-Pakistan dialogues have been resumed in the past many times but have been sabotaged through terrorist attacks and / or other provocative actions by Pakistan every time. Musharraf had earlier said, "Even if the Kashmir issue is resolved, jihad against India will continue". He showed his radical side again recently by stating, "Osama-bin-Laden, Ayman-al-Zhaveri, Haqqanis are our heroes... We trained the LeT against India".

In this backdrop, what should one expect from Musharraf's successors who adore him and don't permit the Nawaz Sharif government to proceed against him despite being charged with murder of a Balochi leader? Pakistan has done nothing to curb terrorist activities of LeT, JuD and their cohorts. Sartaj Aziz himself gave a statement to BBC saying, "Pakistan should not engage in a war with those [insurgents / militants] whose target is not Pakistan." During an international seminar this year, a Pakistani politician admitted that earlier Punjab politicians in Pakistan were not for opening up with India but now there is total political consensus for opening up connectivity and trade with India. However, the Pakistani military has put its foot down against it. Additionally, if the Pakistani military wants, it can easily shut down the anti-India infrastructure and stop all infiltration into J&K but on the contrary it is providing covering fire to assist infiltration, recent example being the infiltration in Tangdhar sector. In the ultimate analysis, the question is whether future Indo-Pak dialogue has the Pakistani military on board and to what extent it would permit this to succeed.

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