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Visit of President Ashraf Ghani — and beyond

By Lt. General P.C. Katoch (Retd) By Photo(s): PIB

 

By Lt. General P.C. Katoch (Retd)
Former Director General of Information Systems, Indian Army

 

The fact that President Ashraf Ghani had to delay his visit to India because of the Taliban attack in Kunduz portrays the irony in Afghanistan; the launch of the summer offensive by the Taliban with obvious Pakistani support and Pakistan's continued duping that she can, or rather will, facilitate Taliban participation in Afghanistan's reconciliation process. Much has been said about Ashraf Ghani visiting India seven months after becoming President, his first foreign being China and in Pakistan going to the army headquarters to meet the Pakistani army chief overlooking protocol. But then, isn't he justified considering Afghanistan has to face the brunt of the Pakistani army and her proxies? Then, considering that his predecessor, Hamid Karzai, made 20 trips to Pakistan as in his 13 years of Presidency to try and broker peace, Ghani must have contemplated doing something different. After all, Prime Minister Vajpayee too travelled all the way by bus to Lahore. It is a different issue that Nawaz Sharif was the Prime Minister of Pakistan and is so now — as gag political head of a country whose military has no plans to stop generating terrorism.

Prime Minister, Narendra Modi with the President of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, Dr. Mohammad Ashraf Ghani, at the Joint Press Briefing, at Hyderabad House, in New Delhi on April 28, 2015

Prime Minister Modi offered help to visiting President Ashraf Ghani in defence and other sectors, even as both discussed cooperation in tackling terrorism. Prime Minister Modi's focus was on connectivity and transit arrangements with Afghanistan. Speaking to the media, PM Modi said, "We believe that Afghanistan's direct surface link to India and the rest of South Asia, and increased connectivity by sea, could turn Afghanistan into a hub that connects Asia's diverse regions and beyond. We are ready to welcome Afghan trucks at Attari. We are also prepared to join the successor agreement to Afghan-Pakistan Trade and Transit Agreement. This will re-establish one of the oldest trading routes of South Asia. I also reaffirmed my commitment to take the Chahbahar Port project in Iran. We will also quickly conclude a bilateral Motor Vehicles Agreement." The million dollar question, however, is that while India has been looking for a land link to Afghanistan and CAR through Pakistan over several decades, latter has chosen to play dog in the manger and is unlikely to change its stance. China too despite tremendous influence over Pakistan does not appear to be conducive to such prospect. To this end, India's willingness to join the successor agreement to Afghan-Pakistan Trade and Transit Agreement also appears utopian for even if such impossibility happens, any Afghan goods coming by road to India will have to pass through the highly volatile regions of Pakistan controlled by ISI proxies. It may be noted that the route of even the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is being changed to avoid volatile areas despite Pakistan already committing one Division worth of specialized troop to protect this corridor. Therefore, Afghan convoys carrying good arriving at the Attari border, if at all, without incident or without paying enormous transit safety money to Pakistani proxies is highly questionable. With reference to terrorism, President Ghani re-emphasized what India has been saying and what President Hamid Karzai too had been saying, in that, terrorism should not be classified into "good" and "bad". Rightfully leaving to Afghanistan what defence assistance it wants from India, India has announced fresh support to its flagship projects like the Habibia School in Kabul, the Indira Gandhi Child Health Care Hospital and Red Crescent Society Fund for treatment of children with congenital heart disease. India has assured abiding support for Afghanistan's ongoing crucial transitions-political, economic and security, for the decade of 2015-24 and beyond. Both countries called on the international community to severely deal with the safe havens for terrorists that continue to threaten regional and global security and welcomed the recent decision of the US President to extend the draw-down of US troops till the end of 2016. India and Afghanistan are to sign the following agreements in the next three months: Extradition Treaty between India and Afghanistan; Agreement on Transfer of Sentenced Persons between India and Afghanistan; Mutual Legal Assistance Treaty (MLAT) in Criminal Matters; Bilateral Treaty for Mutual Legal Assistance in Civil and Commercial Matters between India and Afghanistan; Motor Vehicles Agreement For The Regulation Of Passenger, Personal And Cargo Vehicular Traffic Between India and Afghanistan, and; MOU on Visa free entry for holders of diplomatic passports. The India Afghanistan Strategic Partnership Agreement of 2011 spans: one, political and security cooperation; two, trade and economic cooperation; three, capacity development and education, and; social, cultural, civil society and people-to-people relations. The implementation of this agreement is being done under framework of a Partnership Council headed by Foreign Ministers of both countries. This agreement can be regarded as a game changer in the region. The uncertainties and impediments need monitoring, challenge being to restore the currently derailed negotiations amongst stakeholders and ensure peace in Afghanistan. However, the dynamics of this strategic partnership would be affected by the political and security environment in Afghanistan, most importantly the deviousness of Pakistan. Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj recently reiterated that "India is committed to assisting Afghanistan in its quest to become an independent, peaceful and prosperous country". India has a shared interest in the success of an Afghan-led and Afghan-owned process of reconciliation. Prime Minister Modi said "this should be conducted within the framework of the Constitution of Afghanistan, without the shadow of violence. It should reinforce the political, economic and social progress of the last fourteen years. And, it should protect the rights and aspirations of all sections of the society, including Afghan women." But then Mr Modi also added that the success of this process requires a positive and constructive approach from neighbours, including an end to support for violence. The question here is will Afghanistan's rogue neighbor, Pakistan, play ball. Present indications do not indicate such possibility. Therefore, very rightly India is fast-tracking development of the Chabahar route that will allow access to Afghanistan as well as Central Asia, also permitting tapping of energy resources.