As far back as 1897, Alfred Thayer Mahan had said, “Whoever controls the Indian Ocean, will dominate Asia. This ocean will be the key to the seven seas in the 21st century. The destiny of the world will be decided on its waters. It is only in recent years that then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton talked about the Indo-Pacific, implying that the competition from Asia Pacific will be extending to the Indian Ocean region (IOR) in time to come. He could not have been more right. Today, the Indian Ocean accounts for transportation of the highest tonnages of goods in the world through its waters carried by twothirds of the world’s shipment, one third of bulk cargo traffic and half the world’s container shipments. Almost 60,000 ships transit this ocean annually and the sea lanes that pass through the Indian Ocean are the most heavily trafficked and important to the well-being of billions of people throughout the world since interdependence of nations continues to grow. Prolonged interruptions of the vast amount of trade through these waters would seriously damage the economics of all nations across the globe.

In such a scenario, it is not only the ports of the nations ringing the IOR that are strategically important but islands within the Indian Ocean however small also are of immense strategic value considering the challenges in that the region is confronted with: possibility of conflict – both psychological and physical; safety of sea lanes of communication (SLOCs); piracy and terrorism; arms, narcotics and human trafficking; natural and ecological disasters, and; possibility of nuclear accidents at sea with countries like Pakistan deploying tactical nuclear weapons aboard naval vessels and submarines. Hence, small islands in the IOR are increasingly coming into sharp focus in the unfolding global great power politics – the new Great Game in the Indian Ocean.

Indian Ocean Islands

It is natural that the Indian Ocean being the third largest ocean in the world, covering about 20 per cent of global water surface and with an area of 736 million square kilometres would have a large number of islands. The Eastern half of the Indian Ocean has some 32 island countries, some with their own smaller islands as well. Prominent in this eastern half of the Indian Ocean are: Sri Lanka including its islands of Jaffna and Mannar; Andaman and Nicobar Group of Islands, and Lakshadweep island of India, Coco Island that India gifted to Myanmar, and; Cocos (Keeling) islands of Australia. Similarly, the Western half of the Indian Ocean too has some 31 islands, important ones being Maldives, Mauritius, Seychelles, Madagascar and Diego Garcia, last one being a prominent US military base.

Sri Lanka. The physical location of Sri Lanka far south into the Indian Ocean beyond peninsular India is of great geostrategic importance since it lies astride global SLOCs and its ports are used as transit points.

Coco Islands. Though geographically part of the Andaman group of islands, Great Coco Island and Little Coco Island were gifted away by India to Myanmar as mentioned. Located north of Andaman, there have been reports of Chinese using these as listening posts to dominate the Bay of Bengal and observe missile testing off the eastern coast of India.

Andaman and Nicobar Islands. Part of India, these territories are of great strategic importance because of their proximity to the Strait of Malacca. The southern tip of Nicobar is just 100 km away from Indonesia.

Maldives. Located about 600 km off the south-west coast of India and 750 km south-west of Sri Lanka, Maldives consists of a double chain of 26 atolls spread over 90,000 sq km of territory. It has over 1,000 islands that are uninhabited and the country appears getting radicalized at fast pace. Its geostrategic value lies in its location astride three of the most important SLOCs through which most of India’s trade and oil requirements pass, apart from its close proximity to India and Sri Lanka.

Mauritius. Located about 2,000 km off the southeast coast of the African Continent, Mauritius became an important base on the trade routes from Europe to the East before the opening of the Suez Canal. It claims sovereignty over the Chagos Archipelago and Tromelin Islands that were taken over by Britain and France respectively. Britain reportedly depopulated indigenous population of the Chagos Archipelago and leased it to the United States where latter established the major military base at Diego Garcia.

Seychelles. Seychelles lays some 1,500 km east of mainland southeast Africa, closest to Kenya. It is a the least populated African country with a population of just over 90,000. Consisting of some 155 small islands, its strategic importance lies in its location on the western seaboard of the Indian Ocean and its proximity to mainland Africa and neighbouring island countries of Madagascar, Zanzibar, Mauritius and Comoros.

Cocos (Keeling) Islands (Australia). The Cocos (Keeling) Islands consist of two atolls with an area of 14.2 sq kms lie between Christmas Island and about midway between Australia and Sri Lanka. North Keeling Island is a single C-shaped island while South Keeling Islands consist of 24 individual islets. Its geostrategic importance comes from its location and more importantly that a new US military base may get established her in conjunction Australia.

Chinese Grand Design in Indo-Pacific

The term Indo-Pacific was coined by Hillary Clinton in recent years but its strategic significance was grasped by China decades back taking into account the choke points connecting the Pacific and India Oceans; the Straits of Malacca, Sunda and Lombok. Access to and control of islands (through military and commercial initiatives) seems was initiated as part of Chinese strategy to establish itself as a maritime power long back while she extended her EEZ arbitrarily and claimed territories as per the nine-dot line in Asia-Pacific and went full steam to establish itself in ports ringing and within the IOR through economic-cummilitary ventures as strategic objectives. Was it a coincidence that when the Fiji President (who had attended the Defence Services Staff College in India) ousted 3,500 Indian business families from his country, an equivalent number of Chinese business families slipped quietly into Fiji. More than a decade and-ahalf back, China had established the biggest mission in far away Seychelles and had signed an MoU with them to establish ‘refueling facilities’ (read establishing a base) in outlying islands of Seychelles for use by ‘China, Seychelles and Friendly Countries’.

Over the past decade, not only has China engaged in ports development projects in Myanmar, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, Chinese economic ties with Africa, and the concomitant rise in its naval profile across the IOR have been conspicuous. The magnitude of investments like in Sri Lanka (Colombo and Hambantota) knowing full well the economy of the country, pay back is aimed to be retrieved in strategic terms. When a Chinese nuclear submarine and warship docked at Colombo in recent months, the nuclear submarine did not dock at the Sri Lanka Port Authority (SLPA) berths in Colombo mandated to accommodate military vessels but instead at the Colombo South Container Terminal (CSCT), a deep-water facility built, controlled and run by a Chinese company through an aid project costing $500 million, the China Merchants Holdings (International). The CSCT may be better suited for submarine dockings, but it is also a ‘Chinese enclave’ within a Sri Lankan administered harbor, the berthing itself being a violation of protocol. Similarly, in Maldives, China’s Integrated Development Project rides on huge concessional loans and aid financing from China. The loans are on such high rate of interest that Male will default unless given a waiver. So the waiver will come with a strategic price - in exchange to ‘control’ over maritime projects as done in Sri Lanka.

reproduced in China Daily stating that China plans to build 18 bases in the IOR. China denied such plans but it is pertinent is that the original article not only outlined a blueprint for the establishment of 18 Chinese “Overseas Strategic Support Bases” in the IOR, but also recommended three specific categories of such facilities: fueling and material supply bases for peacetime use (Djibouti, Aden and Salalah); relatively fixed supply bases for warship berthing, fixed-wing reconnaissance aircraft and the naval staff ashore rest (Seychelles); and fully functional centres for replenishment, rest and large warship weapons maintenance (Gwadar in Pakistan). Gwadar in Pakistan, gives China immense strategic advantage because of its proximity to the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.

The US has been refocusing through shifting 60 per cent of its naval assets to Asia-Pacific, China not only is developing its naval strength at a terrific pace and has multiple nuclear submarines already prowling the India Ocean, it is quietly but consistently building land-based assets as discussed including increasing economic and military and maritime ties with littoral states like Maldives, Seychelles, and Mauritius. What was talked of as Chinese ‘String of Pearls’ with respect to India is actually aimed at entire IOR by fusing the economic and military muscle. Under the shadow of “China’s Peaceful Rise”, China has always pursued a policy of deceit, deception and ambiguity. The fact is that behind overt economic rationale, China is discretely pushing through her discreet military agenda since all these land based-assets will be invaluable to Chinese submarines and Carrier Battle Groups (CBGs) deployed in the IOR even as the priority deployment for the first Chinese CBG remains Hainan Islands, given the situation in Asia Pacific. Of course, no discretion is needed in case of a country like Pakistan that is permitting deployment of Chinese missiles in Gilgit-Baltistan area and will have no problems if Gwadar comes up as full-fledged naval base of PLAN, even as China will choose to transit from the economic to military in subtle manner at Gwadar.

Indian Concerns

Nearly 97 per cent of India’s trade is dependent on the sea. So naturally India the safety of SLOCs is prime concern. Offshore oil production on the west-coast of india which commenced in mid-1970s is rapidly expanding. The offshore infrastructure over the years has developed to include over 30 processing platforms and more than 125 well platforms producing more than 32.7 million tonnes of crude annually. In addition, more than 3,000 km of pipeline on the seabed transport oil and gas from the processing platforms to onshore terminals. The existing offshore regions where production is currently taking place, cover a total area in excess of 17,000 square nautical miles (NM), extending more than 100 NM into our EEZ. Over the last 25 years, huge investments have been made on offshore oil infrastructure which today has a replacement value of over $50 billion at current prices. Piracy, terrorism; arms, narcotics, human trafficking; natural, ecological disasters are common concerns. However, the fashion in which militarisation of the IOR is taking place, specifically through China’s economic investments with military aims, the possibility of conflict are rising, which would endanger India’s SLOCs with adverse affects on our economy.

It is in the above context that Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently visited Seychelles, Mauritius and Sri Lanka, correcting the neglect in our foreign policy over past several years. It may be noted that he had invited all the SARC heads to the swearing-in of his government. Acknowledging the strategic significance of the Indian Ocean and its primacy for India’s security and for maintaining peace and stability in the region, he then visited Australia and Fiji. The visit to Seychelles, Mauritius and Sri Lanka was to deepen India’s focus on the IOR. Prime Minister Modi was also to visit Maldives during this tour as per original plans but this had to be shelved because of the instability in that country because of the arrest of former President Mohamed Nasheed purportedly on dubious charges, with the Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group (CMAG) contemplating to place Maldives on the formal agenda over the arrest. Maldives has been going down the road of radicalization over the past decade with youth going to LeT training camps in Pakistan. The present Maldivian Government has enthusiastically endorsed China’s proposal for the Maritime Silk Road and has offered Chinese companies land on lease. India has plans to set up ten specialised Coastal Surveillance Radar Stations in the Maldives also but this will perhaps have to wait till Prime Minister Modi can visit Maldives or Maldivian President Yameen visits India. Indian naval ship Gomati participated in a joint surveillance patrol in conjunction Maldives National Defence Force (MNDF) Coast Guard vessels in second week March 2015.

As a consequence of the Prime Minister’s visit, India has bagged ‘infrastructure development rights’ for two islands in the region; ‘Agalega’ from Mauritius and ‘Assumption’ from Seychelles. The understanding to allow India to develop these islands is of immense strategic significance for India with China having taken initiatives years back to engage with the littoral states in pursuance of her strategic aims of dominating the IOR. India has offered to set up joint working groups with the two blue economies in the region to harness potential for economic cooperation. Prime Minister Modi was the first India Prime Minister to visit Seychelles in 34 years. India signed four agreements with Seychelles to boost security and maritime partnership in the following categories: one, Cooperation in Hydrography; two, Cooperation in Renewable Energy; three, Cooperation in Infrastructure Development, and; four, Cooperation in Sale of Navigation Charts and electronic navigational charts.In Seychelles, Modi also inaugurated a Coastal Surveillance Radar Station (CSRS) that will serve as a fresh pair of eyes in the IOR. India is setting up a total of eight such stations, spread out across various islands of the Seychelles. When the entire network is up, it would be possible to observe live happenings as far as the Cape of Good Hope.

Signing of agreements with Mauritius included: MoU in the field of Ocean Economy; Programme for Cultural Cooperation between for the period 2015 and 2018; Protocol for the import of fresh mangoes from India; MoU for the Improvement in Sea and Air Transportation Facilities at Agalega Island of Mauritius, and MoU on Cooperation in the field of Traditional System of Medicine and Homeopathy. These agreements would enable setting up and upgrading infrastructure for improving sea and air connectivity at the outer island of Mauritius to ameliorate condition of inhabitants and enhance capabilities of the Mauritian defence forces, and; extensive framework for cooperation in the field of ocean economy for mutually beneficial cooperation for exploration and capacity development in the field of marine resources, fisheries, green tourism, research and development of ocean technology, exchange of experts and other related activities. During the Prime Minister’s visit Mauritius, the India built offshore patrol vessel (OPV) Barracuda was commissioned into the National Coast Guard of Mauritius. In his speech PM Modi said, “Today, the world speaks of 21st century driven by the dynamism and the energy of Asia and the Pacific. But, its course will be determined by the tides of the Indian Ocean. This is why Indian Ocean is at the centre of global attention more than ever before ….Our vision for Indian Ocean region is rooted in advancing cooperation in our region; and, to use our capabilities for the benefit of all in our common maritime home.” He also talked of the terrorism, sea piracy, tsunamis, cyclones, illegal fishing and oil spills, all requiring close cooperation to share responsibilities and shape the future for ensuring a safe, secure and stable IOR that delivers us all to the shores of prosperity.

Modi became the first Indian Prime Minister to visit Sri Lanka in 28 years – an irony of our foreign policy deficit. Six CSRSs are presently functioning in Sri Lanka, allowing it to identify vessels sailing past the island adding up to collective monitoring capabilities in conjunction the Indian Radar Network in southern parts of India. Modi addressed the Sri Lanka Parliament urging cooperation in all fields including in countering terrorism and India’s help to Sri Lanka in developing Trincomalee as a petroleum hub. At Jaffna, Modi handed over 27,000 houses built with Indian assistance to displaced Tamils. Tradewise, Sri Lanka is India’s largest trading partner country in the SARC region. The bilateral trade between India and Sri Lanka has grown four times in the last nine years increasing from US $ 658 million in 2000 to $2,719 million in 2009. Sri Lanka looks to investments from China as well and should be able to balance friendly relations with both India and China, which should be fine as long as Chinese actions do not amount to strategic muscle flexing.

Conclusion

The manner in which militarisation of the IOR is taking place raises the possibilities of conflict. The aggressive stance of China despite her peace homilies raises troubling questions about the motive behind China’s Maritime Silk Route, an umbrella term referring to maritime infrastructure projects in the Indo-Pacific region. What is causing concerns is that China’s militarisation of the IOR is proceeding both by land and sea. The littoral states and islands are increasingly becoming strategically important as discussed above, examples being Chinese port and other development project aimed for eventual military use when required and Cocos (Keeling) Islands possibly being developed as US military base in conjunction Australia. India cannot lose focus on such developments and must act to guard its own national interests.