Much has been writen about the future of Afghanistan beyond 2014 but let us first look at what Pakistan is today, its major pointers being: namesake democracy with the military holding all aces including foreign policy; military sheltered by US, China, Saudi Arabia despite spawning terrorism for decades; downslide in economy; political turmoil, and; major fault lines in Baluchistan, NWFP, Gilgit-Baltistan, Sindh and Shia-Sunni divide in addition to backlash of decades of dabbling in terrorism, as witnessed in the December 16, 2014, massacre of innocent schoolchildren of Army Public School, Peshawar.

Afghanistan stands at the crossroads of another transition with continuing ethnic strife and political stability compounded by the Taliban, poor economy despite $3 trillion minerals, oil, gas reserves, 50 per cent economy tied to drugs, country dependent on foreign aid to the tune of 97 per cent, 36 per cent unemployment, 35 per cent population below the poverty line and $1.28 billion external debt.

An important element in the future of Afghanistan is the capacity of the Afghan National Army (ANA) or rather the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) to defend the country even as the two year West supported Operation ‘Resolute Support’ kicks off on January 1, 2015; some 12,000-strong NATO force staying in Afghanistan to train, advise and assist Afghan forces under ‘Resolute Support’ as part compensation of 1,30,000 NATO-led ISAF leaving by end 2014. ISAF has already shut shop. It is significant to note that while mandate of residual US troops has been increased to continue providing air support to ANA when required, this is small consolation considering in 2013, the Taliban were, for the first time, able to inflict almost as many casualties on the ANSF as they suffered themselves; 9,500 Taliban killed versus 8,200 ANSF. The ANSF have showed few patchy successes but all said and done Taliban successes have gone beyond the usual strongholds – bolder attacks and control many districts especially in difficult terrain.

President Ashraf Ghani has ordered topto-bottom review of ANA and resumption of night raids that had been stopped but the ANA is short of artillery, air, logistics, transportation and even medical. As per media large-scale desertions continue in the ANSF. Another July 2014 report states of the 4,74,823 weapons (primarily small arms) that US provided to the ANA since 2004, 43 per cent (2,03,888 weapons) could not be accounted for. A CNA study authorised by US Government under the 2013 National Defense Authorization Act, Section 1215 had concluded in January 2014 that “reduction in US and NATO CI-CT operations combined with the continued existence of insurgent sanctuaries in Pakistan will make the insurgency a greater threat in the 2015-18 timeframe than it is now” and “the ANSF will continue to have significant gaps in capability that will limit their effectiveness after 2014.” AQ resurgent Taliban supported by Pakistan, therefore, is likely to create greater instability. External aid to fund the ANSF has been promised till 2017 at present, balance being a question mark.

The political scene is fluid albeit the present hierarchical dispensation is the best homogeneous mix that Afghanistan has had; President (Pashtun), First Vice President (Uzbek), Second President (Hazara) and Chief Executive Officer (Tajik). The vital problem is the Taliban and the hope of any possible reconciliation. Though both the USWest and Afghanistan have been trying to get the Taliban into the Afghan Government as part of the transition process, all have followed their own agenda without bothering about the consequences, which is still being pursued. This is dividing Afghanistan more along ethnic and ideological lines with suspicions running high. The possibility of the Unity Government successfully completing the transition beyond the parliamentary elections scheduled in 2015 is under debate.

Precious little has happened to elevate the economy of Afghanistan over the past 13 years of US-NATO presence. The CBMs agreed to at the Kabul Ministerial Meeting of June 2012 have not moved much. Similarly, the Tokyo Accountability Conference on Afghanistan has not amounted much beyond financial aids and grants. A recent development has been the London Conference on Afghanistan co-hosted by UK and Afghanistan on December 4, 2014, wherein 59 countries have pledged support to Afghanistan. China recently pledged $327 million to Afghanistan by 2017, while simultaneously announcing $45.6 billion investment in Pakistan, latter for her economic and transportation corridors going through Gilgit-Baltistan all the way south to the Persian Gulf and firming her launch pad for operations to the west.

China views Afghanistan part of the Sino-US game to influence Eurasia and wants US/NATO out while building energy based Eurasian Security Architecture connecting Turkey and China

There are 12 major terrorist groups operating in Af-Pak region, all interrelated and connected with ISI of Pakistan. The Al Qaeda/Haqqanis, Taliban, ETIM safe havens in Pakistan. Pakistani national Asim Umar has been appointed Al Qaeda’s South Asia head. Both the Afghan and Pakistan Taliban are linked and in turn linked to Al Qaeda and ISIS. Ayman Zawahari (Al Qaeda) has declared full support to Mullah Omar of Afghan Taliban while bulk Pakistan Taliban have declared allegiance to the ISIS. In recent past ISIS pamphlets have been distributed in Peshawar and border provinces of Afghanistan. Number of Wahabi-Salafi groups in Af-Pak are reportedly backed by Saudi Arabia including in Nuristan & Kunar Provinces of Afghanistan have pledged support to ISIS. In addition groups like Ahraul Islam (another TTP splinter) and ETIM also think on lines of ISIS. If all this terrorism was not enough, Pakistan has trained 20 Mujahid battalions to operate as / in conjunction Taliban, some of which would perhaps already be in Afghanistan considering reports that some 1.5 million Pakistanis fled from North Waziristan because of military operations, of which at least 2,50,000 have crossed the border into Afghanistan. That Pakistan will like to achieve her cherished strategic depth in Afghanistan using the Taliban and her own forces through sub-conventional war can be anticipated. Pakistan’s strategic aims would be: limit and lessen India’s sphere of influence in Afghanistan, particularly Kabul; promote and finance Haqqanis and Taliban to attack Indian interests in Afghanistan; achieve strategic depth to the extent possible; major share in reconstruction of Afghanistan in conjunction China; ensure Pakistan’s centrality in post-2014 negotiations with Taliban; strengthen economic relations with oil rich CAR nations and finance Afghan Government that favours Pakistani interests, and prevent possibility of calls for independent Pashtunistan.

China views Afghanistan part of the Sino-US game to influence Eurasia and wants US/NATO out while building energy based Eurasian Security Architecture connecting Turkey and China. Chinese scholars have been writing about a China-Afghanistan-Pakistan Trilateral Alliance (Pamir Group) with Chinese investments integrating Af-Pak with China and an Asian Collective Defence Alliance based on SCO members and CSTO since SCO already has cooperative relations with CSTO. China also has an active plan for a quadrilateral freight railroad from Xinjiang through Tajikistan, Afghanistan to Pakistan, and is building a 75-km-long road extending 10 km beyond China-Afghanistan border, through the Wakhan Corridor. China has major economic interests in Afghanistan and had already started drilling oil commercially in 2012. Iran has invested $340 million in developing Chahbahar port coupled with Indian development of Afghan Ring Road Highway (Helmand Sector) fitting the Russian concept of North-South Corridors. Iran is eager to develop its own eastern region and expand trade with Afghanistan and CAR , and developing rail link from Mashshad (Iran) to Herat in Afghanistan. The Chahbahar-Kabul link for trade and commerce will enable Afghanistan and CAR to reach South Asia and Southeast Asian markets besides also suiting western nations.

As for Russia and CAR nations, both don’t want Taliban-Al Qaeda influence in CAR especially since Russia understands adverse effects of possible radical dispensation in Kabul. There appear better chances for Afghanistan-CAR integration. Russia wants security of the North-South Corridor and China cannot provide security for its investments in Afghanistan and CAR even though she is engineering her underhand links with the Taliban. To this end, possibility exists of more CSTO-NATO cooperation.

Major flaw in reconciliation and reconstruction of Afghanistan has been that the US-West never bothered about integrating regional players into the strategy. Besides the reconciliation primarily aimed at bringing the Taliban into the political process despite knowing both Taliban do not believe in democracy and constitutions of Af-Pak would not lay down arms, and want rule of Sharia under an Islamic Emirate / Caliphate. More importantly, while all this was happening, Pakistan continued to arm and strengthen the Taliban right under the noses of US and China.

Hamid Karzai had said that peace coming to Afghanistan would depend on the US and Pakistan. Pakistani attentions are quite obvious but the strategic intent of the US remains as ambiguous as ever albeit it may be conjectured as: to counter influence of China and Russia in Af-Pak; maintain pressure on Iran, and; hinder China embedding on to Persian Gulf through land. If the region becomes more unstable in the process, so be it. India’s strategic interests hinge on: keeping Afghanistan from being used as a base for Pakistan to train and coordinate terror attacks against Indian cities and Indian interests at home and abroad; strong democratic Afghanistan – assist in reconstruction and stability; security of economic / transportation corridor with Iran-Afghanistan-CAR ; enable South-South corridor linking Eurasia-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India-Southeast Asia, and; oil pipelines with CAR , Russia, Iran for energy security. But for this, India needs to focus on its strategic partnerships. Although India is dialoguing Afghanistan with all important countries, it is also important that China comes on board rather than throwing her lot with Pakistan to consolidate the anti-India nexus.